Dr. Faye Hicks, University of Alberta
This research is funded by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada.
Additional funding and collaborative support has been provided by Alberta Environment and DIAND.
We gratefully acknowledge that support!
A unique aspect of Canadian hydrology is the influence of winter on streamflow behaviour. Virtually all of the rivers in this country experience some ice effects each year, and in many cases the runoff events associated with river ice have produced the most extreme and dangerous flood events on record. This is because breaking river ice interacts with and obstructs the passage of floods, causing water levels far higher than those experienced for the same flows under open water conditions. Because the influence of meteorological factors is significant for dynamic ice events, global warming has the potential to affect the winter regime of northern rivers by increasing the severity and frequency of river ice jams. This would have a significant impact on Canadians in terms of property damage and risk to life. Therefore, it is important to have the capability of forecasting such events.
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1997 flood at Fort McMurray AB (photo courtesy of Alberta Environment) |
2008 flood at Hay River, NWT (photo (c) Faye Hicks) |
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Graduate research projects associated with this research:
Liming Zhao, PhD, in progress. Topic: Soft computing techniques for ice jam flood forecasting.
Chandra Mahabir, PhD, 2007. Neuro-fuzzy logic modeling of river ice breakup.
Twyla Kowalczyk (MSc), 2005. Analysis of Ice Jam Release Surges on the Athabasca River at Fort McMurray, AB.
Claudine Robichaud (MSc), 2003. Hydrometeorological Factors Influencing Breakup Ice Jam Occurrence at Fort McMurray, Alberta.
Julia Blackburn (MSc), 2000. Forecasting Open Water and Ice Related Flood Events Using Hydraulic Modelling Techniques.
Publications associated with this research: (students' names in italics)
Mahabir, C., F. Hicks, and A. Robinson Fayek (2007) “Transferability of a Neuro-fuzzy River Ice Jam Flood Forecasting Model”, Journal of Cold Regions Science and Technology, 48(3): 188-201. (PDF file)
Mahabir, C., F. Hicks, and A. Robinson Fayek (2006) “Neuro-fuzzy River Ice Breakup Forecasting System”, Journal of Cold Regions Science and Technology, 46(2): 100-112. (PDF file)
Mahabir, C., F. Hicks, C. Robichaud, and A. Robinson Fayek (2006) “Forecasting Breakup Water Levels at Fort McMurray, AB, using Multiple Linear Regression”, Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, 33(9):1227-1238. (PDF file)
Mahabir, C., Robichaud, C., Hicks, F., Robinson Fayek, A. (2004) “Evaluation of Ice Thickness as a Parameter in River Break-Up Forecasting Modelling” 1st Water and Environment Specialty Conference of the Canadian Society for Civil Engineering, Saskatoon, June, 2004, 10 pp. (PDF file)
Mahabir, C., Hicks, F., Robichaud, C. and Robinson Fayek, A. (2003) “Towards a River Breakup Forecast System for the Athabasca River at Fort McMurray, AB” Proc. 12th Workshop on River Ice. 18-20 June 2003, Canadian Geophysical Union - Hydrology Section, Comm. on River Ice Processes and the Environment, Edmonton, AB, pp. 223-240. (PDF file)
Blackburn, J. and Hicks, F.E. (2002) “Suitability of Dynamic Modelling for Flood Forecasting During Ice Jam Release Surge Events”, American Society of Civil Engineering: Journal of Cold Regions Engineering , 17(1) : 18-36. (PDF file).
Hicks, F.E., Steffler, P.M. and Gerard, R., (1992) “Finite Element Modeling of Surge Propagation and an Application to the Hay River, NWT”, Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, 19(3): 454-462. (PDF file)
Related Publications:
Kowalczyk, T. and Hicks, F. (2004) “Analysis of Ice Jam Release Surges on The Athabasca River near Fort McMurray, AB” Cold Regions Engineering and Construction Conference, May, 2004, Edmonton, AB, 14 pp. (PDF file)
Kowalczyk, T.and Hicks, F. 2003 “Observations of Dynamic Ice Jam Release on the Athabasca River at Fort McMurray, AB, Proc. 12th Workshop on River Ice. 18-20 June 2003, Canadian Geophysical Union - Hydrology Section, Comm. on River Ice Processes and the Environment, Edmonton, AB, pp. 369-392. (PDF file 3MB)
Robichaud,
C.
and Hicks, F. (2001)“A Remote Water Level Network for Breakup Monitoring and
Flood Forecasting ”
Proc. 11th Workshop on River Ice, Ottawa, May, pp. 292-307.
Hicks, F.E., Cui, W. and Andres, D., (1997) “Modelling Thermal Breakup on the Mackenzie River at the Outlet of Great Slave Lake, NWT”, Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, 24(4): 570 - 585.(PDF file)